Another excellent analytical guest post from Oscar Slotboom.
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Metro's fiscal 2026 completed at the end of September. Final financial and ridership numbers will be available when the annual statement is released in April, but using monthly data I can estimate fiscal 2026 ridership.
2026 ridership is just slightly above flat. 2026 average weekday ridership is up 0.08% compared to 2025, and weekend ridership is up 1.44%. The estimated overall ridership increase is 0.33%.
| Weekday | Weekend | Weighted average | ||
| 2025 | 242,263 | 141,028 | 213,339 | |
| 2026 | 242,445 | 143,066 | 214,051 | |
| Change | +0.08% | +1.44% | +0.33% | |
Bus ridership is strong, back to pre-Covid levels. Light rail ridership is weak and has been declining since its post-Covid peak in September 2023 (47,650), which was well below pre-Covid September 2019 ridership of 65,020. September 2026 ridership was 38,727.
The World Cup appears to have provided a small bump to ridership in June, mainly on the weekend (not visible in the chart). June weekday ridership was up 4.2%, Saturday was up 16%, and Sunday was up 8.5%. However, June 2025 Saturday ridership (137,157) was unusually low, 9.8% below 2024, so June 2026 (158,864) is probably a combination of returning to typical values and a small World Cup bump.
Flat 2026 ridership ends the Covid ridership recovery which has been in progress since fiscal year 2022. Fiscal 2025 ridership was 12.6% below fiscal 2019. Reducing the 2025 taxpayer subsidy of $13.07 per boarding will require a reduction in the 2026 operating loss.
Los Angeles Ridership Update
I previously reported about the public transit ridership disaster in Los Angeles. Los Angeles County has ended virtually all freeway improvements and put all their resources into public transit, only to get drastic reductions in ridership. I updated the Los Angeles ridership calendar year (not fiscal year) chart through calendar 2025. (official data site)
2025 ridership was down 1.9% compared to 2024, ending the Covid ridership recovery. Overall ridership is down 37% compared to the 2013 peak and 20.6% compared to 2019. Los Angeles has spent heavily on rail lines, only to see rail ridership go down 43.6% compared to the 2013 peak and 30.8% compared to 2019. I have seen a report that ridership is up this year due to sky-high California gasoline prices.
I went to LA for the first time last July, and like many tourists, I spent plenty of time experiencing its legendary freeway network. Going in, I had this perception that Los Angeles—the ultimate car city—must have some of the most advanced highways in the country. Back in the 1930s and 40s, their early freeways must have been truly impressive, showcasing how far ahead LA was in transportation planning.
ReplyDeleteBut today, as a freeway enthusiast, the reality was a letdown. LA is essentially frozen in a Generation 1 freeway architecture. They are old, poorly designed, and plagued by outdated geometry:
On-ramps that require a right turn straight from a stop sign (like on the Arroyo Seco).
Bus stops slapped right onto the freeway shoulders.
Off-ramps only five car lengths long that dump straight into a stop sign, backing traffic up dangerously onto the main lanes.
A glaring lack of modern, high-capacity interchanges.
A massive chunk of LA's traffic woes stem directly from these antiquated on/off ramps and choke points. Meanwhile, I sat in Long Beach watching light rail trains roll by nearly empty—essentially serving as rolling homeless shelters—while the city implements "road diets" on major arterials and I brave the 710, which acts as a semi-truck parking lot. It also makes you wonder why Caltrans never finished the 710 extension through Pasadena, especially after they already bought up all the houses slated for demolition and the tremendous latent traffic demand.
It feels like California has turned transportation into an "either/or" trap: you apparently can’t build or maintain transit unless you actively neglect highways. Even worse, the debate is often framed purely as a social justice issue—focusing heavily on freeway pollution while completely ignoring massive improvements in vehicle emissions and the enormous economic benefits that high-capacity freeways provide.
P.S. Living in Houston I'm thankful that we still improve our freeways, see what its like to be in a city that has chosen not to. I can say after living her for 26 years, traffic is geniunely better on nearly all freeways, especially on the gulf freeway that I live on. Traffic flows so much better after the 45 expansion, and with safe clear there are far few random jams. Houston has its share of terrible gen 1 interchanges, I'm looking at most of 610's interchanges and espeically 610 at the gulf freeway....
ReplyDeleteCompletely agree! LA is a mess, and Houston has done relatively well. My brother lives south of LA in Orange County, and they were later and much smarter and more modern with their freeway and arterial size and designs. MUCH easier to get around.
ReplyDelete@Anonymous Your observation confirms my statement in the post. Los Angeles is squandering their money on rail lines which have declining ridership, down 44% since 2013. In the meantime their freeways, which are far more important for mobility and freight, are neglected and left to slowly decay and decline.
ReplyDeleteIt sounds like you drove the Pasadena Freeway (Arroyo Seco), which is in a 1940s time warp and was never modernized. Most other freeways (except I-5 south of downtown) are much better, and I agree the cancellation of building the missing link of the 710 was a huge setback to mobility in Los Angeles.