Sunday, August 22, 2021

METRO Update, Inner Katy BRT, and Epic Failure of Transit-Oriented Development Ridership in Dallas

This week is an excellent analytical guest post from Oscar Slotboom.

The Latest Metro Ridership

Metro ridership has been stuck around 55% down for the last year, and was down 54% with 138,975 weekday boardings in the most recent data. Nationally, transit patronage has come up from its 2020 low point, reaching 50% of pre-covid patronage in June.

For perspective, average daily highway traffic on the Katy Freeway near Gessner dropped 18% from 387,769 in 2019 to 317,629 in 2020. Traffic counts are reported with a single annual value, and highway traffic in 2021 has returned to near pre-Covid levels in most places.

The Inner Katy BRT
Metro held a virtual meeting on August 16 for the Inner Katy bus rapid transit (BRT), part of the MetroRapid feature of MetroNext, which will provide a fast connection to downtown for commuter bus services on the Katy and Northwest freeways, and also provide service to the new Uptown BRT. A nice feature of the Metro's depictions is that the stations will have bypass lanes for express buses, so they won't be slowed by local service.

Separately, TxDOT is studying the addition of managed lanes on this segment, and one of TxDOT's options is covered by Metro Option 3 (Tell Metro you support Option 3 here!). The managed lanes are the most critical link in the MaX lanes network which Tory and I have promoted, and would also be part the REAL Network being planned by TxDOT. Unfortunately, H-GAC recently denied TxDOT's request to include the managed lanes in the regional plan. The project will be reconsidered for inclusion in May 2023.

Regular readers will know that Tory and I are big advocates of BRT as a much better alternative to light rail, so we are glad to see this BRT project moving forward. To summarize the advantages of BRT:

  • Light rail is obscenely expensive, with the most recent Metro expansions which opened in 2013 and 2015 costing around $152 million per mile, and the current national average just over $200 million per mile. BRT is far less expensive. Although cost reduction will vary, a good estimate is that BRT costs one-third as much as light rail.
  • Light rail is painfully slow, with MetroRail averaging 14 miles per hour, slightly slower than than the national light rail average of 15.8 mph (page 5). Street-level BRT will be about the same, but grade-separated BRT such as the Inner Katy BRT should be at least twice as fast.
  • Light rail is totally inflexible and unadaptable, usable only by trains. With BRT, buses can serve any route and then enter the BRT facilty. A BRT guideway could potentially be used by technologies of the future, such as automated transit vehicles.
  • Metro's light rail expansions opened in 2013 and 2015 have low ridership. Pre-covid (Jan 2019 through March 2020), the Red Line north extension ridership on a per-mile basis was only 24% of the original Red Line, and the Green/Purple Lines combined were only 21% of the original red line.
  • Street-level light rail is subject to conflicts with cars and pedestrians, while grade-separated BRT as planned for the Inner Katy project eliminates this hazard.

Metro's project site does not provide a cost estimate for the overall 7.6-mile project, and the final cost may vary substantially depending on the option selected and the number of stations. The current H-GAC TIP (page 4-55) lists construction cost at $190 million and total cost at $228 million, which seems low. All Metro's options include an elevated guideway section along the Katy Freeway about 4 miles long. 

Difficult-to-reach Stations

Metro's depictions show very inconvenient access to the BRT stations. Starting at ground level, patrons will need to go up an access tower to reach a skybridge which is 35 to 40 feet above the ground, cross the skybridge to the station and then go down to reach the platform. Mobility-impaired patrons will need to take two elevators to travel from ground level to the platform. It will take at least 30 seconds to reach the platform from ground level, making security more difficult.

My immediate reaction was that Metro should consider shifting the stations to be just south of the freeway so there is only a single, shorter ascent/descent for the boarding platform. At most proposed locations, this would require only minor additional right-of-way, such as the Circle K at Shepherd or the warehouse at Studemont.

Number of Stations: Less is More

Metro originally planned two stations at Shepherd/Durham and Studemont, but due to community input they are now looking at 4 additional stations, at Houston Avenue, Yale/Heights, TC Jester and Memorial Park.

Every station imposes a cost. There is the initial construction cost, and then the ongoing cost of operation, maintenance, and security. But the most significant impact is on the service speed: every station causes a slowdown in the average speed of service, and slower service makes transit less attractive to potential users. So it's a bad policy to add stations just to placate a few people who want a stop.

None of the 6 potential station locations have the characteristics for high ridership, because none are near an employment center, transit-dependent populations or high-density housing (but more on that subject later).

The Houston Avenue station can't be justified. It's already served by Metro Route 44, and it's so close to downtown that time savings for local residents using the BRT would be minimal. The number of residents near this station going in the reverse direction to Uptown is surely negligible. In addition, the area to the north has no opportunities for new development.

Five stations on this 3.4 mile section can't be justified, so Metro will need to carefully consider the locations and hopefully stick with two.

Can a Memorial Park Station be Justified?

The Memorial Park station ranks highest in community feedback, with around 46% of respondents rating it as extremely important. But is the public being realistic about actually using public transit to go to a park? I think this situation is very similar to public transit service to the airports. People view it as highly desirable, but for many reasons very few people actually use it.

  1. There is ample parking available at Memorial Park, free outside the main activity area, which eliminates a major reason to use public transit.
  2. Many park users bring equipment and drinks. This especially includes golfers but also softball players, tennis players, and people with children in strollers. Driving is much more convenient when you have equipment.
  3. After completion of park activities, most people will want go home quickly. If you're tired and/or sweaty, do you want to walk the distance to the BRT station and wait for the next bus?
  4. Most park visitors go to the park outside of peak traffic periods, so traffic is light for most visitors, eliminating another reason to use public transit.
  5. Since park patrons outside the loop and in Uptown are most likely to drive, patrons using BRT would be coming from inner loop stations and downtown. There is generally a low number of residences within 1/4 mile of the proposed stations.
  6. In Dallas, White Rock Lake Park is their approximate equivalent to Memorial Park. The DART Blue Line light rail has its White Rock station on the north edge of the park near a major street (Loop 12). Granted, this is not a perfect analogy since White Rock Lake park is so large. The White Rock station served 406 weekday boardings in the most recent data, which is the second lowest ridership for a station on the north Blue Line and ranks #50 among the 64 DART light rail stations.

Realistically, the main ridership of a Memorial Park station would be people living in the Rice Military area who will use it to go to work downtown or Uptown. Metro will need to carefully consider if that is enough to justify a station.

Epic Failure of Transit-Oriented Development LRT Ridership at Irving's Las Colinas

Transit-oriented development seeks to build high-density housing near transit stations to encourage use of public transit. There's limited or minimal opportunity for TOD near the proposed BRT stations, but even if there was good opportunity, we can't assume TOD would increase ridership.

In Irving (just northwest of Dallas), DART's Las Colinas Urban Center seems to be a perfect implementation of TOD: there are thousands of apartments within easy walking distance of the station, and numerous large office buildings about 1/4 mile away. The DART Orange Line provides direct service to major employment centers at DFW Airport, the Dallas medical district, Uptown/Victory and downtown Dallas. A university and community college also have stations on the line. So this should be one of the best performing stations in the DART system, right?

No, just the opposite. The Las Colinas Urban Center station has the second-lowest ridership in the DART system (see above chart, data source). It served a dismal 170 boardings (roughly 85 people on a round-trip) per weekday in DART FY 2020, which was partially affected by Covid, and had low ridership before Covid. The adjacent Irving convention Center station has the fourth lowest ridership in the system, and the other adjacent station at the University of Dallas has the lowest ridership in the system.

It's poignant to realize that the Orange Line was routed through the middle of Las Colinas to make it convenient to potential users, but the street-level alignment forces it to go slowly through the area, reducing service speed and possibly lowering ridership on the overall Orange Line.

Sure, someone may be able to point to a TOD somewhere which can claim improved transit patronage. But TOD is a total bust for public transit patronage in Las Colinas. So be skeptical when officials promote transit-oriented development.

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Saturday, July 24, 2021

MaX lanes network moves forward, 45N turmoil, Houston Story movie, immigrant magnet, downtown woes, zoning tax, and more

Apologies for the long delay between posts while on extended travels with the family. The featured item this week is TXDoT's new video promoting a managed lane network for Houston similar to what Oscar and I proposed in 2017. Can't say I'm a fan of the Regional Express Access Lanes (REAL) branding vs. Managed Express (MaX) Lanes Network, but great to see TXDoT pushing the concept forward! It would enable a high-speed nonstop ride from every part of the region to every major job center and be a major asset for the city.


Speaking of TXDoT, if you'd like to support the I45N rebuild project and prevent it from losing funding, fill out the survey here and sign the petition here.

Moving on to several items to catch up on:
"California may be a great state in many ways, but it also is clearly breaking bad. Since 2000, 2.6 million net domestic migrants, a population larger than the cities of San Francisco, San Diego, and Anaheim combined, have moved from California to other parts of the United States."
Finally, ending on a little humor, hat tip to Barry for finding this little gem: The Houston Story movie from the 1950s. How have I never heard of it before?!  Trailer, background, and even the full movie if you're so inclined. Wow.


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Monday, July 05, 2021

Austin vs. Houston, 45N defunding, Houston's 'tough love' homelessness model, traffic rankings, and more

 A few small items to kick it off this week followed by extensive excerpts from Evan Mintz's excellent Texas Monthly piece on Austin vs. Houston.

Finally, some of my favorite excerpts from Evan Mintz's newest Texas Monthly essay (highlights mine): 

Dear Austinites, You Have Permission to Move to an Affordable, Weird City: Houston

If you’re trying to buy a home, then you’re probably a grown-up. You deserve a grown-up city—the city of Houston. 

"Austin is a fun place, no doubt. Texans from across the state love to hop in the car and spend a long weekend paddle-boarding on Lady Bird Lake, swimming at Barton Springs, partying on Sixth Street, and reliving college memories at Kerbey Lane—as if the city were their personal playground. But playgrounds are for children. If you’re trying to buy a home, then you’re probably a grown-up. You deserve a grown-up city—the city of Houston. 

Don’t get me wrong; Austin has some great attributes. The Capitol is a beautiful and historic building. Houston should aspire to have a campus of the caliber of the University of Texas. And Austin summers are somewhat more of a dry heat. But those great Austin amenities that people swear they could never do without—the live music! The outdoors! The progressive attitude!—exist in every other major city in one form or another. And I would argue that Houston’s offerings are better, and more sophisticated, than Austin’s. 

...the fact that the city’s leadership can’t find a way to make housing affordable should be an indictment of anything related to self-proclaimed progressiveness. Politics is about power, and if Austin politicians can’t use their power to improve the fundamental living conditions of not only the most vulnerable but also a reasonably privileged middle class, then they should just admit the city is becoming a resort town for celebrities and a techno-oligarchy and spend their time arguing about plastic straws. Say what you will about Houston’s relationship with the oil and gas industry; at least pollution here has abated. Austin still hasn’t figured out how to mitigate the collateral consequences of tech wealth and Hollywood tourism. 

...

No doubt Houston isn’t as affordable as it used to be, especially for renters already struggling. But somehow it remains tenable for those upwardly mobile geriatric millennials taking their first steps into homeownership. In the past few months alone, I’ve seen four friends buy their first places: a new townhouse in Oak Forest, a classic eighties townhouse in Montrose, a bungalow north of downtown, and a cottage in the Second Ward. These homes aren’t in far-flung suburbs; they’re in Houston’s inner core, within walking and biking distance to the breweries, restaurants, arts venues, and other hallmarks of a livable, enjoyable city. Some of these are dense housing allowed by Houston’s lax land-use rules. Others are older homes still left standing—and reasonably priced—as new construction soaks up capital like a sponge, saving older neighborhoods from the deluge of wealth that has made Austin so unaffordable. I also know people who moved to the Woodlands. 

...

In contrast, Houston, a place without pretension or zoning, will gleefully tear down its past if that makes the present more appealing—anything to give you the freedom to grow. You won’t be restrained by outdated notions of what the city should be. You’ll be empowered by hopes of what the city can be. We’re improving our parks, adding more bike lanes, and expanding the mass transit system. And we don’t listen to NIMBYs who want to block affordable housing. Forty years of the Houston Area Survey show that we’re a city perpetually, even irrationally, optimistic about our future. Houston thinks there are better days ahead, while Austin worries it is past its prime. 

The choice is clear: You can rage against the dying of the light in Austin and spend 50 percent of your income on housing, or you can be reborn a sweaty, home-owning phoenix in Houston."

Hear, hear!

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Monday, June 28, 2021

Flexible remote work beating hybrid models, Austin's CA housing frenzy, Kinder housing insights and flaws, and more

A fair number of interesting items this week:

“I feel like we have more friends here now than we’ve ever had in California,” Josh Rubbicco said. “People were so welcoming and friendly.” ... 

“The pricing power of Austin, which is number one in the country, is driven by California, plain and simple,” Toll Brothers CEO Douglas Yearley said on an earnings call last month. “The phenomenon is fascinating. We’ve never seen migration like this.”

  • WSJ: Remote work is the new signing bonus (and only 2% of VMWare employees showed up when offices re-opened!). This has a ton of ramifications, and not just to cities. Talent will migrate to a lot of more flexible competitors. Companies that insist on in-office will be less competitive – JP Morgan may lose waves of bankers, and competitors will be eager to poach. Maybe ultra-wealthy companies like Apple will just throw money at employees until they work in the office, but most companies won’t have that option. The old extroverted execs that mastered office politics will try to push everybody back into the office, but it will cost them dearly, in talent (lost and paying a premium to keep) and in office space. They won’t just lose the talent competition, but the cost competition. There will be major changes in the competitive landscape of a lot of industries. And it’ll be interesting to see if these hybrid models hold up over time. I think the Adobe total flexibility model is more likely to dominate. Employers with the hybrid model will soon make exceptions for key talent that want to be more remote. Once they do that, existing employees will ask for the same flexibility out of fairness. And then they’re on a slippery slope to the Adobe flexible model.
  • Continuing the remote work question, Rice's Kinder Institute interview with downtown's Bob Eury on The return to work will determine the fate of downtowns. Is Houston ready for what’s next?
  • Rice's Kinder Institute releases their 2021 State of Housing in Harris County and Houston report (story). A lot of good insights in here, but I have two critiques: 
    1. Building in 100y and 500y floodplains is only bad if buildings are not properly elevated, which they should be under current regulations.
    2. I'm not sure comparing renter incomes to the median house price is the right comparison. Renters fall on the lower end of the income spectrum, so shouldn't the relevant question be if they can afford houses one or two standard deviations below the median house price? Or put another way, if renters on average earn X% of the region's median income, the question shouldn't be if they can afford the median house, but houses at X% of the median price.
  • UCLA: Value Capture Reconsidered: What if L.A. was Actually Building Too Little? Hat tip to George. Abstract: 
"Should cities only allow new housing on the condition that the developers of that housing deliver public benefits in return? This idea is often called “value capture”, and is used to justify — among other things — various forms of inclusionary zoning. The author argues in this essay that value capture is conceptually and logically flawed. It rests on the idea that new housing is not by itself a public benefit, and on the assumption that not building housing is socially harmless. Most of all, it inverts one of the most important insights in urban economics and urban public finance: that value rests primarily in land, and that development is an important way to share and redistribute land value."
Finally, we'll end with a little fun. This map is wild - so many Houstons! (how many can you count?!) And I think I might inquire about buying a shack in Beverly Hills, TX just so I can tell people "I have a 2nd home in Beverly Hills", lol ;-D

xkcd: No, The Other One (click to enlarge)


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Monday, June 21, 2021

Will TX get a 5th large metro? FT ranks HTX top city of the future, TX as the capital of US logistics, the next entrepreneurial revolution

I'm back from a short trip that caused me to miss last week's post and ready to catch up on some smaller items:

"A new study from the fDi Intelligence division of the Financial Times places Houston at No. 7 among the top major cities of the future for 2021-22 across North, South, and Central America. Among major cities in the Americas, Houston appears at No. 3 for business friendliness and No. 4 for connectivity."

"America's political class seems to believe that, due to automation, we will enter an era of secular stagnation and need welfare schemes like UBI to support people. 

Texas, as the U.S. leader in trade & logistics, is a giant rebuttal to that. 

Texas shows how through low taxes, loose land/housing regs, natural resource extraction, and open trade, a state can foster blue-collar jobs and upward mobility."

  • More from Scott Beyer: Will Texas Get a Fifth Large Metro? Texas’ “Big 4” metro areas—Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio—have all exploded with growth. Will a 5th sleeper one emerge? His conclusion? If it will be anywhere, it will be in the I-35 corridor between Austin and San Antonio at the edge of the Hill Country. Not so much a fifth metro as the gradual merger of two of them. Eventually Austin-San Antonio may be right up there with Dallas-Ft. Worth and Houston in size.  I agree with his assessment. The most compelling value proposition for most people moving to Texas is the suburb of an existing Triangle metro, where they'll have access to all that metro's jobs and amenities (including a major airport). Check out the cool maps he has of the largest Texas metros and their relative growth rates. 
  • Joel Kotkin: The Next Entrepreneurial Revolution - The pandemic’s economic destruction has also created new winners. One of his profiles is based in Houston:

"Out of the wreckage, some restaurant entrepreneurs are finding new ways to survive—and even thrive—by using the kinds of technology Jaffe sells. But what’s mattered most, suggested Chris Williams, owner of Houston’s famed Lucille’s soul food house, has been finding ways to stay in touch with customers through the pandemic. Faced with closures, Williams, unlike many of his counterparts, decided to keep all his staff. Instead of cutting personnel costs, he innovated, changing the menu to make it friendlier to online delivery, instituting a delivered Easter brunch, making extensive use of the yard adjacent to the restaurant, and having his employees make the deliveries, rather than rely on expensive services like Uber Eats. He also made a very public effort to feed thousands of hungry people in Houston, which was also hit hard by a cratering in oil prices.

“The lesson of 2020,” Williams said, “is you do best to invest in your employees and your company. The community is your business. People see what we are doing and order from us. The community work turned out to be a dual-purpose dollar.”


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Sunday, June 06, 2021

Reason video on Houston, Texas MUDs as an affordability model, Houston's pioneering reduced minimum lot sizes, and some very cool maps

The lead item this week is a very cool video from Reason, "Density or Sprawl? How To Solve the Urban Housing Crisis", and specifically starting at 11:38 when Scott Beyer and Randal O' Toole start talking about the Houston example.

Reason: "The city of Houston gets it more or less right" on densification vs. sprawl, with a variety of housing types. Free market with deed restrictions, but no zoning and no urban growth boundary.

A great video, although I wish they hadn't shown the beer can house (talk about poster-child for terrifying people about eliminating zoning!) and had used a map less than 50 years old, lol. It didn't even have a completed 610 Loop on it! 

Moving on to this week's other items:
"Houston is known for its lack of Euclidean-style zoning, but the city still has various ordinances that control land use. In 1998, Houston reformed its subdivision rules to allow for parcels smaller than five thousand square feet citywide. In this paper, we discuss the unique land-use rules in place in Houston prior to reform and the circumstances that led to reform, including the “opt out” provisions, which mediated homeowner opposition to substantial increases in housing density. We then analyze the effects of reform. After relief from large lot requirements, post-reform development activity was heavily concentrated in middle-income, less dense, underbuilt neighborhoods."
Finally, a great piece in Governing magazine from Market Urbanist Scott Beyer on the power of Texas MUDs to create affordable housing supply.
Municipal utility districts seem to work in the Lone Star State. They have increased the housing supply, using lighter regulations, resulting in downward pressure on costs. Now, they may be catching on elsewhere.

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Tuesday, June 01, 2021

Be Someone City Opportunity Urbanism event, relaxing min parking reqs, HTX #1 building homes, hurricane risk, and more

The lead item this week is a Houston event I'll be speaking at Wednesday evening June 16th: Building a 'Be Someone' City: Houston and the Rise of Opportunity Urbanism

"Cities have historically been the gateway to America and our nation’s promise of opportunity and upward mobility. Today, however, many of our nation’s highest profile cities have become ‘luxury products’ affordable only for the highest income earners. Houston and other ‘opportunity cities’ have historically bucked this trend by embracing policies that lower the cost of living, create jobs, and enhance the quality of life for all. But a continuation of this success is under threat from an array of proposed ‘command and control’ policies that will erode our city’s dynamism. Houston’s success is no accident, and it’s future is worth fighting for.

Join the Liberty Leadership Council and the Urban Reform Institute for a vibrant discussion of Houston’s market-centered, ‘people-oriented’ approach to urban policy, planning, and development.

We’ll talk zoning, transportation, infrastructure, housing, and everything in between—all while enjoying views of downtown and toasting the Bayou City."

You can register here and I hope to see you there!

Moving on to this week's items:

  • City Journal: End of the Road for Parking Requirements - They serve as a tax on housingHouston should pass a plan to automatically reduce parking minimums citywide by 8%/year - enough for real impact over time w/o public blowback. Why keep building parking that autonomous taxis will make obsolete in the 2030s or even sooner?
  • Excerpts from a Market Urbanist Scott Beyer Facebook post after his most recent trip to Texas:

"Texas is already known for high econ freedom and autonomy from the feds. The more I learn, the more unique it seems on this front. Counties without zoning. Toll roads galore. Limited land handed to the feds. Independent not unified school districts. Separate energy grid. Higher speed limits. And I could go on. The governance here is truly different. 

A culture of exceptionalism: Texas wants to be the best, and has built an unapologetic brand around it - “everything’s bigger in Texas.” Coastal urban America used to have that bravado, but is now overcome with Nimbyism and guilt-mongering."

"More permits (48,208) were issued last year for new-home construction in the Houston area than anywhere else in the U.S. DFW ranked second (43,884), and Austin held the No. 5 spot (21,653)."

  • Houston and NOx and SOx – Companion Pollutants
  • Drive & Listen: Wow this is super cool and mesmerizing. You can set the speed of the vehicle, street noise, music - even change radio stations while driving in 50 different cities around the world, spending as much time as you like in any one of them. Someone needs to do this for Houston!

Finally, we'll end with a little dark humor meme that makes a great point:

Ever-growing layers of bureaucracy are how societies stagnate, and it's the direct cause of increasing unaffordability in cities across the country.

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Tuesday, May 25, 2021

Astrodome as the world's largest climate-controlled festival park, smart traffic lights, HTX eating out vs other cities, relaxing parking minimums

The lead item this week is the Astrodome Conservancy's survey and public engagement on the future of the Astrodome.  I've made a *lot* of posts over the years on the Astrodome - so many that I recently discovered the Astrodome tag on my blog only shows posts back to 2015 but not before.  Before that I found them in 2014 (twice), 2013 (twice), 2012, and even as far back as 2005.  After all of that debate, the best affordable solution I've settled on is the world’s largest climate-controlled park with a focus on weekend festivals. People love going to parks, but not during Houston’s extreme weather, especially summers.  Having an activated park full of activities and festivals on weekends that is always protected from heat and rain would be a very popular spot for Houstonians, especially families desperate to find affordable activities every weekend (minus Texan home games or the Rodeo). And it could easily start very modestly and then expand over time with parking fees + philanthropy, like has been happening with the Zoo, MFAH, and HMNS. Imagine Levy Park + Discovery Green x10... or The Gathering Place in Tulsa (pictures)... pretty cool, right?! Be sure to let them know your own thoughts here.

Moving on to some smaller items this week:
  • NYT: Smarter Traffic Lights, Calmer Commuters. Holy crap Houston needs this! I think Uptown and TMC would be really good test cases. The AI could learn optimal traffic light timings based on time-of-day as well as make dynamic adjustments for unexpected surges.
  • Cities Spending the Most on Eating Out in 2020We found that Houston, Texas ranks #11 for spending their annual income at restaurants. Houston residents spend an average of $357 each month on eating out and 5.7% of their annual income at restaurants. Houstonians spend about the same amount eating out vs. in. We eat out a lot, but at low prices. We eat out a lot more than Dallas residents, which surprised me a bit until you think about how hyper-competitive Houston's restaurant scene is from the lack of zoning.  That hyper-competition applies to grocery stores as well, which shows up in how much less we're able to spend on food than most of the cities in their graph.  Houstonians spend $300 less per year on groceries than the average American, but $1,000/year more on eating out due to the high incomes and great affordable restaurants here.
  • City Journal: End of the Road for Parking Requirements - They serve as a tax on housing. Houston has been expanding its "market-driven parking" zone beyond downtown to Midtown and EaDo, and hopefully to additional areas in the future.  Let developers decide how much parking they need, not arbitrary formulas. Hat tip to Jay.
  • This makes me nauseous. Planners actually like tight zoning regulations like high minimum parking requirements so they can extort more out of the developer to relax them! 

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