Several readers have been asking for an in-person meet-up for a while, so I've decided to schedule one to match one of Kuff's monthly lunches - that way attendees will get a two-for-one whether you want to discuss politics, urban strategies, or both. It'll be at the Amazon Grill on Kirby just north of Bissonnet, this Friday Feb 5th at 11:30am. Amazon offers order-at-the-counter lunch, and hopefully it won't be too hard to keep putting tables together as-needed to accommodate everybody who shows up. See ya there.
More on the critical need to address the city's pension funding crisis. I've come to the conclusion that no institution can be counted on to be above board in pension contributions and accounting - including private companies and government. It's just too tempting to shortchange the problem and kick it down the road until it explodes - and then the taxpayers are on the hook. Defined-benefit plans simply need to be made illegal and move everybody to defined-contribution plans. Hat tip to Bill.
Finally, check out this very cool new Texaplex Houston video by David Winans. That led me to this video, which has a title that I think could be a good alternate nickname for Houston (instead of Bayou City or Space City): "Texas' Powerhouse" - a play off the energy capital thing as well as the vibrancy and growth.
How the new Apple iPad (and other mobile tech) changes the commuting equation
Apple's much anticipated iPad tablet computer was announced today, albeit to some mixed reviews. While the iPad itself may or may not succeed, the overall technology trend line is clear: increasingly rich mobile access to the Internet and email. Oddly, this Business Week columnist thinks the iPad may lead to more telecommuting, when what it really favors is tipping the balance for commuters from driving to transit, where the usually "dead" commuting time can become really productive. Most people are already spending more than two hours a day on email and the Internet - why not put those hours at the beginning and end of the day while commuting so you can spend less time in the office and more time with your family?
A decade ago, the workplace was much more call and voice-mail driven, which matched up just fine with long driving commutes and cell phones. But the shift has moved strongly towards email and other data-driven communications (texting, Twitter, Facebook, collaboration applications, etc.). Most messages have multiple recipients and can expect to have a string of replies - something voice mail simply can't handle. People are trying to do this data-driven communication while driving, with very bad effects that are leading rapidly to a comprehensive legal ban.
As more people realize the productivity advantage of a transit commute, I think there could be a substantial shift. But it might not be quite what you'd expect. Mobile productivity favors one long ride in a comfortable seat - no transfers, no standing 'strap-hanging' (like on a subway or full light rail or local bus), and minimal walking (which is not only incompatible with mobile productivity, but also has weather risk and is especially hard on women in heels). That argues for express buses over trains. I recently met with a friend that lives in Manhattan but works in Connecticut. Does he take the subway and then ride the train? Nope - a luxury shuttle bus with wi-fi picks him (and the other Manhattan employees) up right near his apartment and drops him at the front door of work. Point-to-point express buses are the future of commuting. All you need are a couple dozen people that need to get from the same neighborhood to the same job cluster on roughly a similar schedule to justify a daily round trip - and they can all be productive the whole way, whether through individual 3G data connections on their devices or wi-fi on the bus (by far the cheapest option).
While the climate-concerned may cheer increased transit use, an ironic side effect may actually be increased sprawl. When commuting is truly unproductive time, as driving is, people really hesitate for it to be more than an hour a day, which puts a pretty hard limit on how far home can be from work. But if you can be productive on a bus doing work you'd have to do anyway, you might consider two or more hours a day commuting (as my Manhattan friend does) and look at exurban communities you wouldn't have even considered before, especially if they have more affordable or newer houses with better amenities and public schools.
This is the commute of the future, and cities that offer it conveniently, affordably, and comprehensively (all neighborhoods to all job centers) through some combination of public transit, private buses, and HOT lanes will continue to grow and thrive in the coming decades, while those that don't, won't.
The power of congestion pricing and bus rapid transit
I recently received an email from John of NY with a couple of book micro-reviews that make some really good points, so I thought I'd pass it along with his permission. The power of congestion-priced toll lanes to move so many more cars is a particular eye-opener:
They argue for more limited access highway capacity and the use of variable tolling (where the toll increase as use increases) and electronic toll collection ("open road tolling") both to generate revenue for building and maintaining new capacity and to control excess traffic loads. Indeed, they cite a very interesting statistic involving the use of variable tolling on the SR 91 Freeway in Southern California. That roadway, which I personally traveled on back in 1997, has 4 or 5 free lanes and two variable toll lanes on the far left side in each direction. According to the statistic they cited, the two variable-priced toll lanes (which are rarely congested) move as many cars in a day as the 4 or 5 free and often congested lanes. If these statistics are even remotely accurate, it makes a whole lot of sense to use variable tolling whenever new capacity is added.
They also advocate improvements in boulevards and other arterial roadways. These improvements include synchronizing traffic lights and building underpasses or overpasses to move traffic nonstop through major intersections. There whole point is to increase the traffic speed and, hence, the mobility for those who use arterial roads.
They also argue that rail mass transit (including light rail) makes very little sense outside of New York City's Boro of Manhattan and a few other very densely populated places. They argue for expanded Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) which is much cheaper, and more flexible and which can be easily combined with express toll lanes and other improvements for cars. Indeed, the book suggests that your skepticism about much of Houston's proposed light rail system is very well-founded. It would seem that BRT should be used instead, as you have suggested. The book was particularly tough on light-rail - which is very much favored by anti-car elites. The authors suggest that light rail in many ways combines the worst both both bus and rail transit. It is inflexible and often quite expensive, like a new rail line, and it is often slow like traditional bus service, particularly where the light rail line must use public streets (as most light rail systems do at least part of the time).
The book 21st Century Highways, which came out in 2005, reaches many of the same basic conclusions as Mobility First. This book was published under the auspices of the Heritage Foundation think tank based in Washington D.C. To me, this book's most valuable contribution is historical context. It provides an interesting history of highway building in America. In particular, it takes a detailed look at the Federal government's role in highway building and transit funding from before the interstate system right up until about 2004. It makes the important observation that mass transit is not underfunded. Indeed, it is overfunded.Over 20 percent of federal "highway" spending now goes to mass transit projects, even though only about 2 percent of all transportation trips involve the use of mass transit, while over 90 percent involve the automobile.
Just want to pass along a couple of event announcements for those who might be interested.
The first is a personal one: Bob Sanborn of Children at Risk has asked me to co-host his KPFT radio show from 3 to 4pm on Monday Jan 18th. The theme is 2010 predictions, and here are some of the topics:
“Light Rail – Is it good for our children?”
Bob - For Tory – Against (I was assigned this position, even though I have a mixed opinion. Nonetheless, Bob should fear me... ;-)
1. Environment Predictions 2. Health: Impact of Obama’s new health bill 3. Arts: Predictions for Best Picture of the year 4. Politics
This year’s report focuses on Air Quality, Parks and Trails and Trees. Its results span a 10-year period that gives a more accurate picture of the region’s quality of place, and its improvement or lack thereof, over time. A chapter on the health implications of these changes has also been added to better illustrate how these indicators affect our everyday lives. In light of the Obama Administration yesterday releasing new EPA limits, the air quality piece in the report may be of particular interest.
Panelists at this important Symposium include experts in air quality, parks and trails, and trees, as well as public health experts who will discuss the implications of these Indicators on the well-being of the region’s residents.
Keynote Speakers include Kathleen Wolf, Ph. D., a Research Social Scientist and Professor at the University of Washington, and Larry R. Soward, a former TCEQ Commissioner who, until last year, was known for his efforts to balance environmental concerns with business objectives. He will speak about the challenges our region faces and the commitment required to improve. Dr.Wolf will speak to the social and economic benefits of these indicators, including the competitive edge that they provide to our region.
Houston accolades, transit crises, worst-run city, happy TX, and more
First, let me apologize for the inconsistent posting over the last month or so. It's been crazy-busy, and not just because of the holidays either. I've decided to cut back blog posting to once a week (from twice/week now) for the indefinite future. If things lighten up again, or if I find I suddenly have more to say, I'll go back to twice a week. Hopefully this will also allow me to put a little more time into each post and write up more of the 'big idea' essays I have in mind, but take a serious time commitment to generate.
"By contrast, in cities such as Houston and Hong Kong the skylines are not the cause of their economic prosperity, but merely the most visible manifestation of it. That's a prosperity that has been built over the years on the basis of those old reliables: economic freedom, the rule of law, hard work and sound management. Without these, nations and cities alike build on nothing but foundations of sand."
Public-Transit Passengers Face Rough Ride Agencies Nationwide Raise Fares, Cut Service as Budget Pressures Mount; In Chicago, 'Less Frequent, More Crowded Service'
The city's ineptitude is no secret. "I have never heard anyone, even among liberals, say, 'If only [our city] could be run like San Francisco,'" says urbanologist Joel Kotkin. "Even other liberal places wouldn't put up with the degree of dysfunction they have in San Francisco. In Houston, the exact opposite of San Francisco, I assume you'd get shot."
But the election of Annise Parker in Houston makes clear that the Charlottes and Houstons are now at the forefront of American political change, while the shrinking and declining big cities of the Northeast and Rust Belt are bringing up the rear.
"Houston is your post-racial, post-ethnic future of America," said demographer Joel Kotkin. "It's a leading-edge place."
If this study is to be believed, Texas is the 15th happiest state. Not bad when you note some of the heavy hitters at the bottom of the list: NY, MI, CA, NJ, IL, MA. We also beat out some pretty nice trendy states like Colorado and Oregon. But if Louisiana is the nation's happiest state, how come I see so many of their license plates in Houston?
It's time for the Fall 4Q09 quarterly highlights post, which also sums up all of 2009 (if you've been outside recently, then you clearly understand that we are now officially in the 'Holy Crap It's A Cold Winter!' quarter). These posts have been chosen with a particular focus on significant ideas I'd like to see kept alive for discussion and action, and they're mainly targeted at new readers who want to get caught up with a quick overview of the Houston Strategies landscape. I also like to track what I think of as "reference posts" that sum up a particular topic or argument.
Don't forget we offer an email option for the roughly twice/week posts - see the Google Groups subscription signup box in the right sidebar. An RSS feed link (Atom) (or RSS 2.0) is also available. As always, thanks for your readership.
And don't forget the highlights from the first four years. For what it's worth, I think the best ideas are found there, often in the first year (I had a lot "stored up" before I started blogging).
...please take a look at my new application as you consider your New Year's/Decade's resolutions:
Life Mastery Trainer
Everybody has had the inspiring experience of reading great advice or wisdom for improving their life. But that initial enthusiasm is rarely enough to sustain the long-term effort needed to convert that advice into ingrained habits, and the opportunity to transform our lives is lost. Life Mastery Trainer is designed to not only help you integrate those practices into your daily life, but also create a community of users sharing and rating their favorite practices for a wide range of situations.
I've been working on it with a team for over a year, and we just got it approved by Apple for the iTunes app store last week.
Apologies for putting a non-Houston-related post on the blog, but it's really hard to break out of the clutter of 100,000 other store apps. If we can get enough sales to get on some of the top lists, then thousands of other iPhone and iPod Touch users will be able to discover it and improve their lives. Please also consider mentioning it to your friends via email, blog, Facebook, Twitter, etc.
And here's the link to the community web site with the app description, screenshots, forums, and the ability to submit new practices (it's pretty basic right now, but we plan to expand and improve the site soon).
Deepest thanks for your time and consideration. And may you have a masterfully Happy New Year/Decade! -Tory
The Houston Chronicle editorial board recently called on Mayor-elect Parker to essentially 'tread lightly' when it comes to Metro, so as not to potentially jeopardize federal funding for the new rail lines. While I think everybody would agree we don't want to put federal funding at risk with any clumsy moves, an immediate deep-dive audit and analysis of Metro's cloudy future plans and financials is absolutely called for. There are big money bets being made here that require fiscal due diligence and a fiduciary duty by the mayor, who appoints the majority of Metro board members.
First, some of the troubling Metro numbers I've seen recently:
"In short, for a $300 million capital cost, light rail significantly increased the costs of operating Houston transit while it killed the growth in transit ridership and significantly reduced passenger miles."
I myself worry that much of the line's ridership is simply as a parking shuttle for the Texas Medical Center - something future lines won't benefit from.
Those of you who know Tom Bazan know that he is a strident Metro critic - and not one I always agree with - but he does make some fair points:
"METRO has failed to honor the main promises made to voters in the 2003 “Solutions” referendum; that of a 50% INCREASE of bus service. Further when voters approved the “Solutions” plan in 2003, the urban rail portion was to be 22 miles, costing $1.2 billion ($54.5 million/mile). Today, it is a 30 mile rail plan, and the cost is in the range of $4 billion ($133.3 million/mile)!"
BEFORE METRO BUILT URBAN RAIL, FY 2001 Population: 4,262,000 Transit Boardings: 101,914,157
SIX YEARS AFTER URBAN RAIL COMPLETED, FY 2009 Population: 5,090,600 (2008) Transit Boardings: 73,080,702 + 11,561,633(rail) = 84,642,335 total (12 months ending September 2009) - a 17% drop in ridership
Using the $1.46 billion contract as the basis for calculations, the average cost of the four corridors will be $68 million per mile. The average based on the (FTA) letters of no prejudice amounts for the North and Southeast corridors would increase the cost to $159.4 million per mile.
It would also increase the cost of the East End Corridor to $527.7 million and more than double the price of the Uptown Corridor to $688.8 million.
That would bring the estimated cost of the four lines to more than $3 billion.
Separately, the 11 miles of the University Corridor not included in the contract would be more than than $1.7 billion.
$4.7 billion is a truly staggering amount of money if that turns out to be the true cost - way, way beyond the $640 million bond issue voters approved in 2003.
A similar story from Denver's multi-billion dollar FasTracks program, with details of huge cost underestimates, over-hyped congestion and environmental benefits, and traffic snarls from at-grade crossings (sound familiar? Are we about to make the same mistake?). Their proposed answer? Better bus service.
And that's just a sample of the dozens of transit agencies in trouble, looking for either taxpayer bailouts or draconian service cuts.
Houston has a real chance to make sure we don't make the same mistakes.
As far as federal funding, it is important, but it's not everything. An analogy: if a salesman offers a $200K Ferrari at half-price with a $100K government subsidy to a middle-class family (and, to make this analogy match rail, they can't resell it), it's still a financially imprudent and disastrous move - subsidy or not. The goal is not maximizing federal subsidies - it's building a sustainable, affordable, functional, high-ridership transit system.
Congratulations to Annise Parker on her win last night, becoming, as she pointed out, the first Rice alum to become mayor of Houston ;-). Between her and Harris County Judge Ed Emmett, the Rice mafia now controls this town. Nerds rule, literally in this case. I'm hoping for my appointment call any day now... (hint, hint)
She faces a difficult financial situation at the city, and obviously her first priority will be getting that under control. In addition to those short-term pressures, there are the long-term financial issues of city employee pensions and Metro's solvency, with rail cost estimates spiraling upward and revenue shrinking. If she does nothing else in the next two years but fix those financial problems and get the city and Metro on a sustainable financial path (without raising taxes), she'll have one of the most accomplished mayoral terms in city history and will more than deserve two follow-on terms.
But that's no reason to limit our ambitions. I went through my highlight posts from the last five years to find some good strategies for the next few years, with an emphasis on low or no-cost ideas:
"The lesson of High Point is that you can reduce crime by making credible threats, without having to lock up so many people. To deter, a punishment must be swift, certain and severe....Mr Kleiman suggests several other promising, non-macho approaches to curbing crime. Raise alcohol taxes. Start school days later to prevent after-school crime. Force probationers to wear GPS tags, thus making probation a tough (and much cheaper) alternative to prison. Americans should experiment with such ideas, he says, and if they are serious about justice, the object should be to cut crime, not to make criminals suffer."
Finally, in the more experimental category, I think there is a real opportunity to truly open up government to enable more engagement by citizens (including innovation and finding much-needed efficiency improvements), in the same way the open source movement works with software on the internet. But that's a topic for a whole 'nother blog...
World's smartest cities, HOT lanes, Rice-BCM, iPhone app, and more
I've been cleaning out the email inbox of old newsletters, which yielded a lot of new small items to pass along:
A great quote I came across: "Those who argue that it doesn't pay to build a road because it just fills up again should test that argument on libraries, schools, and hospitals." Alan Pisarski, author of Commuting in America.
Sam Staley at Reason summarizes the arguments and data for HOT lanes. We have our first set on the Katy Freeway, and Metro is in the process of converting all of their HOV lanes. Now if we could just get them on 610...
At the bottom of page 3 in this pdf from the Greater Houston Partnership you can find a detailed analysis of how long it will take the city and metro of Houston to pass up Chicago (#3) and LA (#2). It's a lot longer than you might think, unless something big happens like a Houston-Harris County merger/annexation.
"As North America's economy shifts from import and consumption toward export and production, Seattle's rise will be a model for other business-savvy cities in the West and South. Houston's close tie to the Caribbean, as well as its dominant global energy industry, thriving industrial base, huge Texas Medical Center complex and first-rate airport, all work to its long-term advantage. Arguably the healthiest economically of America's big cities, Houston is also investing in--not just talking about--its green future; last year it was the nation's largest municipal purchaser of wind energy."
Houston is still the nation's #1 home construction market, substantially ahead of followers DFW, DC, Phoenix, and Austin. The largest declines since the peak of the housing boom? Atlanta, Phoenix, NYC, Chicago, and Riverside. Notice that Phoenix is on both lists: a big decline from a big peak still puts them ahead of most. Hat tip to Jessie.
If you have an Apple iPhone or iPod touch, check out a new application from Wayne at HAIF called Towrs. It "uses the iPhone's geolocation feature to display the interesting buildings near where the user is standing. Downtown Houston and Galveston are two of the areas it is designed for. It also works well in Chicago, Los Angeles, Tokyo, London, and a few other cities." I tested it and it's pretty slick. Just point your phone's web browser to Towrs.com . If you have feedback, send your suggestions or bug reports to editor@houstonarchitecture.com.
A final note: I'm on vacation for the next 10 days or so, but blog posts will return mid Christmas week. Don't have any more snow without me...
"Four of those top 40 MSAs are in Texas: Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW), San Antonio and Austin. Respectively, the current dollar value of their GDPs ranked 4th, 6th, 36th and 37th in 2008. Together, they accounted for 77 percent of Texas GDP last year and seven percent of national GDP. The two giants, of course, are Houston and DFW, which each accounted for more than 30 percent of the state’s GDP. San Antonio and Austin each accounted for roughly 6 ½ percent of Texas GDP."
I've always kind of thought of Austin+San Antonio as sort of nearly equal to DFW or Houston, but that's clearly far from the case. Less than half.
All of them have roughly the same long-term GDP growth (since 2001) as Texas as a whole (~3%, 50% higher than the U.S. as a whole at ~2%), except for Austin, which is 50% faster again (~4.5%). Austin got a bit of an artificial boost from the bounce-back effect after a hard dot.com crash in 2000.
San Antonio is the most stable, followed by average DFW, with Austin and Houston having the most growth volatility (from tech and energy+hurricanes, respectively).
"Perhaps the best single measure of economic success is per capita real GDP. DFW followed closely by Houston (~$50K) were particularly strong in 2008, ranking respectively 18th and 21st nationally. Austin (~$44K) also was relatively highly ranked coming in at 43rd among the 366 MSAs. San Antonio (~$32K) placed in the middle of the pack with a ranking of 180th."
We all lag in per capita GDP growth, as population increases outstrip productivity increases. Houston lagged the worst, although I think this might be at least partly related to the large number of Katrina refugees (in addition to the usual international immigration). Texas also attracted a lot of lower-middle and middle income households this decade from across the country as housing got unaffordable elsewhere, averaging down GDP per capita. I wish they had stats to show GDP per capita growth for just the people that were here the entire period. I would imagine it would be much stronger: we have a pretty strong opportunity ladder that people move up the longer they're here, but new population is always streaming in at the bottom of the ladder.
An open dialogue on serious strategies for making Houston a better city, as well as a coalition-builder to make them happen. All comments, email, and support welcome.
About Me
Name: Tory Gattis
Location: Houston, Texas, United States
Social Systems Architect, consultant and entrepreneur with a genuine love of my hometown and its people. I cover a wide range of topics in this blog - including transportation, transit, economic development, quality-of-life, city identity, and development and land-use regulations - and have published numerous Houston Chronicle op-eds on these topics. I also co-authored the Opportunity Urbanism study with noted urbanist Joel Kotkin and others, creating a city philosophy around upward social mobility for all citizens as an alternative to the popular smart growth, new urbanism, and creative class movements. I am a native Houstonian, 6th-generation Texan, attended Rice University for my BSEE and MBA, and a former McKinsey consultant. I have had a long career in information technology, and am currently the founder and president of OpenTeams, a web-based collaborative software company that emphasizes openness and transparency inside large organizations. CONTACT EMAIL in no-spam format: tgattis (at) pdq.net - send me an email if you would like to receive these posts via email, or see the Google Groups signup box below.
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