Houston Strategies: Minimum Lot Size Reforms big win for Houston, AI-resistant HTX economy, 'Abundance' and Housing, and Cloud Streets!

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Life has been busy and I haven't posted in a while, so the smaller items have gotten backlogged:

Abundance and Housing: Ezra Klein has a new book out called "Abundance," and Evan covered it at Houstonia. The core idea is that we need more of things – housing, clean energy, etc. – and that often means overcoming local opposition and regulatory hurdles. Sounds familiar, right? Houston's approach, particularly on housing, often feels like a practical application of this "abundance" mindset compared to more restrictive cities. Separately, Evan notes the interesting political dynamic where YIMBYism (Yes In My Backyard) focused on housing abundance is finding allies across the traditional political spectrum, driven by the sheer need for more housing.
Minimum Lot Size Reforms: Speaking of housing abundance, the Pew Trusts did an analysis last year highlighting Houston's success with minimum lot size reform. They found it significantly unlocked affordable homeownership opportunities. Key takeaways include that these reforms allowed for thousands of new, more affordable homes closer to job centers without subsidies, providing a market-driven solution to affordability challenges. It's a prime example of how lighter regulations can yield positive results. Some key points:

The reform led to the construction of over 34,000 townhouses from 2007-2020, mostly on commercial, industrial, or multifamily properties.
The resulting townhouses provided more affordable family-sized housing in the urban core compared to other new homes.
The townhouses were larger than the single-family homes they replaced, offering more living space.
The increased housing supply did not lead to displacement of Black and Hispanic residents; instead, Houston saw population growth in these demographics.
An opt-out provision (block votes) helped minimize opposition to the reform but also limited development in some areas.
Houston's experience shows land-use reforms can spur housing, offer affordable options, and limit displacement.

Houston: AI-Resistant, Educated, and Affordable? An interesting academic paper analyzing metropolitan areas based on education levels, exposure to AI disruption, and housing costs puts Houston in a very strong position. According to the analysis (Table 7, p. 24 of this SSRN paper, also mentioned in the NY Times), Houston stands out. Among large metros with high education, low AI job exposure, and affordable housing, Houston is by far the largest (7.5 million population vs. 1.5 million for the next largest). This suggests Houston may be uniquely positioned for resilience and growth in the coming AI-driven economic shifts.
Cloud Streets! On a final lighter note, Space City Weather was kind enough to post some cool "cloud street" photos I took during some interesting weather patterns. They were pretty cool and like nothing I've seen before.