Implications of the blue wave on TxDOT funding and priorities
A timely and insightful guest post from Oscar Slotboom.
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After Tuesday's earthquake in Texas politics, I immediately began to wonder how TxDOT will be affected. Here's a summary of my conclusion based on the points below:
Transportation policy and funding does not appear to be a priority issue for Gina Hinojosa. But she is a liberal Democrat, and it could be a latent issue she just hasn't talked about. TxDOT funding and high-level policy is determined by the legislature, not the governor. Many regions including Houston and other Democrat-voting areas will be lobbying the legislature for maintaining or increasing TxDOT funding. Any legislative efforts to curtail TxDOT projects and funding will need to pass the Republican-majority Senate.
No later than February 2029 Hinojosa will have appointed a majority of the Texas Transportation Commission, which allocates funding to specific projects and sets departmental priorities. This is how she will influence the future of TxDOT. It's unknown how she will steer the commission, soft left or hard left. At least the first two commission appointees will require approval by the Republican-majority Senate.
I expect most or all projects with local support already in the planning or construction phase to proceed. That includes all Houston-area projects in the 10-year Unified Transportation Plan (UTP). NHHIP north of downtown, which has only minimal funding allocated and is mostly not in the UTP, is the project with the highest risk of not proceeding as scheduled.
Republicans keep a majority in the Senate
Republicans currently hold 18 of 31 State Senate seats with one seat (district 22, Galveston County) vacant. Looking at the results compared to the current status, zero Republican seats flipped to a Democrat and Republican Dennis Paul won the open seat, giving them 19. Democrats don't have full control of the legislature and legislation relating to TxDOT will need to pass through the Republican-majority Senate.
Of course, the Lieutenant Governor, who presides over the Senate with strong powers, will be Democrat Vikki Goodwin. Her campaign issues page has no mention of transportation policy.
Gina Hinojosa's Priorities, the $1500 payment and Proposition 1
Her priorities page does not mention any transportation issues. This news report says,
"Hinojosa said Texas needs to look beyond expanding highways and build better transit connections, including between its major cities. She did not lay out a finished rail plan. She said a governor would need to bring local governments, landowners and the state together to pursue one."
So she does not have a plan, but she will bring Democrat values to any effort to formulate a plan. Building any kind of rail, either local light rail or high speed intercity, is astronomically expensive – just ask California.
Hinojosa's priorities page says the $1500 payment she promises to every household in Texas will come from the Rainy Day Fund, using $17 billion of the projected $27.4 billion fund balance at the end of September.
The Rainy Day Fund, technically called the Economic Stabilization Fund (ESF), receives funding primarily from severance taxes on oil and gas production. Severance taxes also fund Proposition 1, a key source of revenue for TxDOT which has delivered the following amounts to TxDOT in recent years: 2023: $3.64 billion; 2024: $3.06 billion; 2025: $2.74 billion; 2026: $2.56 billion.
Funding via Proposition 1 is authorized only if the balance of the ESF is at least 7% of general revenue-related appropriations for the fiscal biennium. For the 2026-2027 biennium the general revenue is $194.6 billion. This means the ESB needed a minimum a balance of $13.6 billion to enable Proposition 1 payments.
So if the $1500 payment is approved by the legislature and the ESF balance is reduced to $10 billion, it appears Proposition 1 payments would not be allowed for at least one year in the next budget biennium. But of course there could be many possible outcomes, such as a lower cash payment or income restrictions for recipients, higher-than-expected severance tax revenue due to high oil prices or allowing Proposition 1 payments with an ESB balance below the 7% threshold.
Bipartisan regional support for increased highway funding
At the August meeting of the Texas Transportation Commission, a large delegation of Houston political leadership went to Austin to lobby the commission for increased transportation funding for the Houston region. (see video starting at 1:38:50) The presentation included Harris County Commissioner Garcia (1:44:20) who spoke in favor of SH 225 and NHHIP funding, Commissioner Lesley Briones (1:46:00) who spoke in favor of I-10 Inner Katy corridor, US 290 and FM Road funding, Baytown Mayor Charles Johnson, and Chad Burke of the Economic Alliance Houston Port Region
Harris County Commissioner Lesley Briones speaks to the Texas Transportation Commision on August 26, 2026, in support of increased highway funding for the Houston area.
The top legislative priority of the H-GAC Transportation Policy Council for the upcoming legislative session is "Increase Revenue Available to the State Highway Fund".
The top legislative priority (page 8) of the North Central Texas Council of Governments (their equivalent of H-GAC) is "Identify and pursue additional revenue for all modes of transportation".
Political leadership of the Rio Grande Valley and El Paso speak regularly to the transportation commission in support of more transportation funding for those regions. (for example this video 1:10:15)
Regions all over Texas, including Democrat-voting areas, will be lobbying the legislature to maintain or increase TxDOT funding.
The Texas Transportation Commission
The Governor appoints members of the Texas Transportation Commission, with expiration of terms of serving members shown below. Two terms expire in February 2027, providing Hinojosa an immediate opportunity to appoint two members, including the chair. Senate approval is required, so these new appointees will likely need to be moderates. Barring early resignations, a third term expires in February 2029, and with that appointment Hinojosa will have appointed a majority on the Transportation Commission and will be in a position to control priorities and policy. With multiple terms in office she will appoint all members.
She can be expected to appoint commissioners friendly to Democrat concerns, such as curtailing urban freeway projects and spending TxDOT money on public transit. However, funding public transit from highway funds will require legislation, which will need Senate approval.
| Commissioner | Term expiration |
| Alvin New, Chairman (San Angelo) | Feb 2027 |
| Pat Gordon (El Paso) | Feb 2027 |
| Steven Alvis (Houston) | Feb 2029 |
| Robert Vaughn (Dallas) | Feb 2031 |
| Alex Meade (Brownsville) | Feb 2031 |
High Speed Rail
I could not find any news reports which explain Hinojosa's position on the subject, except for the quote in the priorities topic above suggesting generic support for rail projects. Governor Abbott has generally been neutral on the subject of high speed rail. Opposition was led by Republican legislators, including Senator Kolkhorst of Brenham.
Hinojosa's support for high speed rail seems likely, but will almost certainly just be lip service. As I reported in detail in July, the project's problems are so immense that it is very unlikely the project can proceed. At the very minimum, a supplemental environmental impact statement is needed to define a new alignment in the Houston area, which will be difficult and could take years. The cost is probably in the $40 to $50 billion range, and it will need to be government funded, either with direct funding or low-interest government-backed loans.
Tolls
I've done multiple posts about the need to reform the Harris County Toll Road Authority to mandate accountability and better management. The Republican-controlled legislature has done almost nothing to provide more oversight of HCTRA.
Senator Robert Nichols, formerly the chairman of the Senate Transportation Committee and the most influential legislator on transportation issues in the last 20 years, did not seek re-election. Nichols generally supported HCTRA's diversion of toll funds, making reform more difficult. In the 2025 session an effort spearheaded by Republican Senator Bettencourt to require an annual audit and divert surplus toll revenue to the City of Houston passed the Senate but died in the House.
The current Senate Transportation Committee Chairman is Tan Parker of Flower Mound (near DFW Airport), but a new chair will likely be appointed by new Lieutenent Governor Goodwin.
Affordability is a centerpiece of the Democrats' winning platform, and some type of toll relief would have an immediate beneficial impact on millions of daily toll road users.
I've seen a mention of political interest in reducing tolls to lower the cost of living.
Will the greatly increased Democrat influence in the Texas legislature make HCTRA reform more likely? We will find out, but I'm inclined to think that any legislation actually becoming law is unlikely. Politically, Harris County will strongly oppose any state intervention, as they did in 2025, while the City of Houston (CoH) will advocate for some type of reform, such as surplus revenue going into a fund which is controlled by H-GAC and available to CoH and others.
Implications for Houston
The Houston delegation presentation at the August Commission meeting indicated strong local political support for planned and proposed projects, including NHHIP and particularly those serving Port Houston. Here's my assessment of the status of planned projects (costs and dates are subject to chagne):
| Project | Cost, billions | Funding Status | Scheduled contract award | My opinion |
| Interstate 10 San Jacinto River bridge | $1.065 | In UTP, 100% funded | Nov 2029 | Safe |
| NHHIP Section 3 (downtown) | $6.3 | In UTP, 78% funded | Multiple 2027-2035 | Safe |
| NHHIP Sections 1 and 2 (north of downtown) | $2.8 | One project in UTP, 4% funded | Multiple 2030s | at risk |
| Interstate 10 Katy to Brookshire | $0.895 | In UTP, 69% funded | 1st project 2028 | Probably safe but could be delayed |
| SH 35 connections to Loop 610 | $0.438 | In UTP, 100% funded | Between 2031 and 2035 | Probably safe |
Adding new projects for Houston, particularly the Inner Katy Project, will depend on the future direction of the commission as determined by Hinojosa's new appointments. I think projects serving Port Houston will be the most likely new projects added in upcoming years.
Labels: affordability, governance, HCTRA, high-speed rail, politics, transportation plan
posted by Max Concrete @ 8:14 PM
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