Houston Strategies
Wednesday, October 29, 2025
Wednesday, October 22, 2025
Highways: costs are way up, funding is in decline. What's the Impact on Houston?
| Updated project year | |
| Connecting the SH 35 freeway extension to Loop 610 | 2029 |
| Widening the Gulf Freeway to 8 lanes on Galveston Island, including direct connections at 61st Street | 2029 |
| Interstate 10 Widening from Katy to Brookshire | 2029 |
| Direct connectors at the Gulf Freeway and Grand Parkway segment B | 2028 |
| SH 249 inside Beltway 8 (West Mount Houston Road), widen to 8 lanes | 2029 |
| US 290 in Waller County, widen to 6 main lanes | 2033 |
| Inner Katy BRT (Metro) | 2033 |
| SH 6 at FM 529 | 2029 |
| Updated project year | |
| NHHIP 3C-2 (I-69 at I-10) | 2028 |
| NHHIP 2A (I-10 to Loop 610) | 2031 |
| NHHIP 2B (Loop 610 interchange) | 2034 |
| NHHIP Segment 1 (Loop 610 to BW 8) | 2034-35 |
| I-10 East San Jacinto Bridge | 2030 |
| Scheduled | Amount | |
| Feb 2026 | $77 million | US 290 new underpass as Skinner Road |
| Apr 2026 | $166 million (Toll) | SH 99 (Grand Parkway), widen to 6 lanes between I-10 and West Road |
| Jun 2026 | $1.876 billion (Toll) | SH 99 (Grand Parkway) segment B, build new toll road from Gulf Freeway to SH 35 |
| Feb 2027 | $113 million | FM 521 (Almeda Road), widen south of Highway 6 |
| May 2027 | $114 million (Toll) | SH 99, widen to 6 lanes west of I-45 (North Freeway) |
| Jun 2027 | $273 million | NHHIP 3C-3 (I-10 in UH-downtown area) |
| Oct 2027 | $866 million | NHHIP 3A (I-69 from Spur 527 to SH 288) |
| Dec 2027 | $52 million (Toll) | SH 99 (Grand Parkway), widen to 6 lanes from Kuykendahl to Holzwarth |
| Feb 2028 | $253 million | connections between SH 99 segment B and Gulf Freeway |
| Mar 2028 | $180 million | NHHIP 3C-1 (I-10 Gregg to Waco St) |
| Mar 2028 | $1.78 billion | NHHIP 3C-2 (Interchange at I-69 and I-10) |
| Sep 2028 | $672 million | NHHIP 3C-4 (I-10/I-45 interchange northwest of downtown) |
| Oct 2028 | $324 million | I-10 Katy Freeway, Mason Rd to Pin Oak Rd |
| Oct 2028 | $78.5 million (Toll) | SH 99 Grand Parkway west of SH 249, widen from 4 to 6 lanes |
| Dec 2028 | $270 million | widen I-10 in Brookshire, FM 359 to Igloo Road |
| Mar 2029 | $159 million | SH 288 widen to 8 lanes Loop 610 to Sims Bayou |
- NHHIP downtown projects not listed above, and all projects north of downtown facing possible years of delays.
- Inner Katy managed lanes and BRT
- I-10 Katy Freeway, Katy to Brookshire
- I-10 East Freeway San Jacinto River Bridge
- SH 35 connection to Loop 610
Labels: infrastructure, transportation plan
Wednesday, October 15, 2025
New Zealand VIP visits Houston, HISD as a model of education reform, Texas MUDs, and young adult views on Houston
Catching up on a few smaller items from my slow-posting summer:
- Got to have a bbq dinner with New Zealand government minister Chris Bishop in July to brief him on Houston and Texas policies that keep housing affordable (NZ houses are about 3x what they are here, similar to CA). He's in casual clothes before an overnight flight returning to NZ, lol.
- John Arnold holds up the state takeover of HISD as a national model of impressive education reform in a nation that has pretty much given up :-(
- A substack on the Texas MUD model for housing development, including a nice graph of rent increases vs. population growth for different cities (spoiler alert: Texas does very well).
- Kinder: How do young adults feel about living in Houston? These 4 charts tell the story.
- Houston's young adults (18-34) highly value the city's diversity, community, and lifestyle, seeing them as the best aspects of living there.
- The city's affordability and lifestyle are particularly attractive to Gen Z and young millennials who are delaying traditional life milestones for financial reasons.
- Most young adults have a positive outlook on Houston's culture, recreational activities, and higher education opportunities.
- The primary reasons young adults choose to stay in Houston are the life they've built there and proximity to family and friends, rather than solely job opportunities.
Labels: affordability, education, home affordability, land-use regulation, perspectives, quality of place
Sunday, September 21, 2025
A new seal for the City of Houston
The Chronicle asked the public for updated alternatives to the old City of Houston seal, which is definitely looking a bit dated at this point:
So I submitted this with a little help from AI, which they published!
Tory Gattis, Harris County: This concept features a modern and stylized representation of a bridge, symbolizing a pathway to success and a connection to the community. The clean lines and vibrant colors reflect an energetic and forward-looking city. This logo is optimistic and welcoming, embodying the spirit of "The Opportunity City." It would also be super-cool to integrate the "Be Someone" bridge into the logo, although that would require the city to protect it going forward.
Some of the other submissions were also quite good and had great elements to them. But a lot of them also use elements that are not timeless and will run into the same issues as the current aging seal, like the downtown skyline or oil rigs or rockets. It’s hard to make something timeless, which mine kinda does (accidentally). I also just noticed the two sides of the bridge in mine are red and blue coming together, a nice subtle political reference. Houston has always done best when it operates in a working together ‘purple’ manner.
Honestly, I doubt the City will really consider undergoing a revamp, as it would create a ton of political interests weighing in and end up as some bland compromise-by-committee monstrosity 🙄
Let me know what you think in the comments!
Thursday, August 07, 2025
The Gulfton Fallacy: Don't Let Zoning's 'Perfect' Be the Enemy of Houston's Good
The Houston Chronicle just published a shorter version of this as a Letter to the Editor, but here is the full version.
---
The recent call to use the Gulfton neighborhood as a poster
child for imposing city-wide zoning (“I'm an urban planning expert from
Houston. It's time we talk about zoning again.” Houston Chronicle 8/1/25) is
the latest verse in a seductive but dangerous song. Words like “planning” and
“zoning” poll well because they offer a vague cure-all for the complexities of
a dynamic city. It’s an understandable impulse, but it’s a trap—a classic case
of the “grass is always greener” fallacy, where a theoretical, perfect version
of zoning is imagined, while the grim reality of its failures elsewhere is
ignored.
Before we consider dismantling the very system that has made
Houston a beacon of opportunity, we must take an honest account of what that
system delivers. Houston’s status as one of America’s most affordable and
dynamic major cities is the direct result of our unique light regulatory touch.
Our ability to build new housing at a rate reportedly up to 14 times that of
our zoned peers is the core of our success. This is why Houston largely avoided
the catastrophic housing bubbles that devastated other regions and why our home
price-to-income ratio remains the envy of the nation.
The contrast with heavily zoned cities is stark. While Texas has
approximately 90 homeless individuals per 100,000 residents, California’s rate
is nearly five times higher, fueled by a regulatory crisis that can push the
cost of a single “affordable” housing unit to over $500,000. Houston
prioritizes building, which results in a higher standard of living for those
with resources and more humane options for those without.
A critical part of our success has been smart, inner-loop
densification, unleashed by pragmatic lot-size reforms. The resulting townhome
boom created tens of thousands of new homes, the very “missing middle” housing
that has effectively become illegal to build in most American cities. On
expensive urban land that, under a restrictive zoning regime, would either
become a massive McMansion or remain blighted, Houston gets thousands of new
homes affordable to middle-income families.
The city-wide zoning now being contemplated, using Gulfton as an
example, is a recipe for exclusion. It would hand a powerful tool to NIMBYs all
over the city to kill development and force stagnation. This isn’t a guess;
it’s the lived reality of every major zoned city, where restrictions choke
supply, drive up prices, and displace the very people they claim to protect.
Furthermore, this push, like the recent attempt to create so-called
“conservation districts,” is an undemocratic end-run around the City Charter
and the will of Houston voters, who have decisively rejected zoning three
separate times.
The choice is not between chaos and zoning. Houston is not
“unplanned”; it is largely privately planned through a robust system of
voluntary deed restrictions. This provides the best of both worlds: neighbors
who want zoning-like protections can have them, while the city as a whole can
grow and adapt. For specific conflicts, we use surgical tools like buffering
ordinances, not a sledgehammer.
Cities across America are now desperately trying to liberalize
their land-use rules to achieve a fraction of the affordability and dynamism we
take for granted. For Houston to voluntarily inflict this self-destructive
disease upon itself would be a historic tragedy. We are the model other cities
are trying to emulate. Let’s not break what works.
Tory Gattis is the editor of the Houston Strategies blog and a Founding Senior Fellow with the Urban Reform Institute.
Labels: affordability, home affordability, land-use regulation, zoning
Saturday, July 12, 2025
The Original Three Sections of the Sam Houston Tollway Pay for Themselves Every 3 Years
| Original cost, 1980s, millions* | $420 |
| Interest, estimated 5% for 30 years | $400 |
| Widening, early 2000s** | 81.1 |
| Interest, estimated 5% for 30 years | 77.2 |
| Estimated Total Cost | $978 million |
| 2021 (millions) | $351.45 |
| 2023 | $342.39 |
| 2024 | $344.25 |
| Total Revuene | $1.038 billion |
Labels: governance, government transparency, toll roads
Tuesday, June 24, 2025
Texas Just Launched a Four-Pronged Attack on the Housing Crisis
This legislative session has culminated in a landmark victory for property rights and housing affordability in Texas. Thanks to the tireless work of advocacy groups like Texans for Reasonable Solutions, which championed this entire suite of bills, Governor Abbott has now signed four powerful pieces of legislation that represent the most significant pro-housing reform the state has seen in decades. This isn't a single, timid step; it's a coordinated, multi-front assault on the regulatory red tape that has driven up housing costs and limited options for Texas families.
For years, we've watched major Texas metros grapple with an affordability crisis born not of scarcity of land or lack of demand, but of an ever-growing thicket of municipal ordinances. These four new laws—HB 24, SB 840, SB 2477, and the capstone bill, SB 15—take direct aim at the root of the problem: artificial constraints on supply. Let's break down each of these strategic wins.
1. HB 24: Ending the "Tyrant's Veto"
One of the most pernicious, anti-growth mechanisms in Texas zoning has been the "protest-by-a-small-minority" rule, rightly dubbed the "tyrant's veto." Under the old law, if owners of just 20% of the land area near a proposed zoning change objected, it triggered a supermajority vote (three-fourths) of the city council for approval. This gave a handful of NIMBY ("Not In My Back Yard") neighbors disproportionate power to block new housing projects that a simple majority of elected officials, and likely the community at large, supported.
Championed by Rep. Dustin Burrows and Sen. Bryan Hughes, HB 24 fundamentally restores fairness to the process. The bill targets the most common use of the veto by raising the protest threshold for adjacent property owners to 60% and, crucially, removes the supermajority requirement for those protests.
The result: A small group of opponents can no longer single-handedly kill beneficial projects. This strengthens property rights for landowners who wish to develop housing and empowers city councils to make decisions for the good of the entire city, not just a vocal few.
2. SB 840: Turning Underused Commercial Strips into Homes
Drive through any major Texas city, and you'll see them: aging, half-empty strip malls, vast parking lots, and underutilized commercial corridors. This is what I call "greyfield" land—already developed and served by infrastructure, yet failing to meet its economic potential. SB 840, led by Sen. Bryan Hughes and Rep. Cole Hefner, provides a powerful tool for recycling this land into something far more valuable: housing.
The bill allows residential and mixed-use housing to be built by-right on land zoned for commercial or retail use in Texas's largest cities. This means developers can bypass the lengthy, expensive, and uncertain rezoning process to build multifamily or mixed-use projects. The law builds on the stunning success of similar reforms in Florida, which saw over 15,000 housing units approved in its first year.
The impact is threefold: It unlocks a massive supply of land for infill development, which reduces sprawl and conserves precious farmland. It puts downward pressure on rents by increasing the housing supply where it's needed most. And it revitalizes unproductive commercial areas, turning them into vibrant, walkable neighborhoods.
3. SB 2477: Unlocking Empty Offices for Housing
The post-pandemic world has left Texas cities with millions of square feet of vacant office space. Houston and Dallas have some of the highest office vacancy rates in the nation. This is not a cyclical dip; it's a structural shift. SB 2477, from Sen. Paul Bettencourt and Rep. Jared Patterson, offers a common-sense solution: let people live there.
Much like SB 840, this law legalizes the conversion of vacant office buildings into residential housing by-right. It streamlines the process by waiving costly and often unnecessary requirements like traffic impact analyses and new parking minimums that were designed for a commercial-use building, not a residential one. With polls showing 71% of Texans support this idea, it's a clear policy winner.
This is the definition of sustainable growth—recycling existing structures to meet a critical need without using an inch of open space.
4. SB 15: The Starter Home Revolution
The final and perhaps most crucial piece of the puzzle is SB 15. With an overwhelming 90% of Texans viewing housing costs as a problem, the need for more attainable options is undeniable. For decades, many cities have used large-lot zoning requirements as a tool to mandate low-density, high-cost housing, effectively outlawing the construction of more affordable "starter" homes.
SB 15 takes direct aim at this exclusionary practice. In Texas's largest cities (150K+ population in counties of 300K+), the law now limits a city's ability to impose a minimum lot size greater than 1,400 square feet in new subdivisions. It also reigns in excessive setback, height, and bulk rules for these smaller lots, giving builders the flexibility to provide a wider range of housing products.
We don't have to guess at the results. Houston’s pioneering 1998 reform provides a real-world case study, resulting in a boom in townhomes that in 2021 averaged just $310,000 compared to $545,000 for traditional single-family homes. Analysis shows the potential is enormous: Dallas could add over 120,000 starter homes and Fort Worth could add 26,000 on available land under the new rules. This is the kind of sustainable, market-driven solution that encourages infill development, conserves farmland, and boosts tax revenue per acre.
A New Era for Texas Housing
Individually, each of these bills is a significant victory. Together, they represent a paradigm shift. The Texas Legislature and Governor Abbott have sent a clear message: the state will no longer allow arcane local regulations to stand in the way of housing production. By neutralizing the NIMBY veto, unlocking underutilized properties for residential use, and allowing the market to build the smaller, more affordable homes that Texans clearly want, this legislative session has laid the foundation for a more prosperous and affordable future for our state.
Labels: affordability, development, governance, home affordability, land-use regulation, zoning
Sunday, June 01, 2025
HCTRA Update: Legislative session is a bust for reform, but no action is better than bad action
- It mandated that 100% of toll "surplus revenue" is distributed to Harris County and the City of Houston (CoH).
- The City of Houston would receive 30% of surplus toll revenue, ostensibly for providing emergency services on toll main lanes in Houston.
- There was no limit on the annual diversion of toll revenue, and the diversion continued in perpetuity.
- The bill's only redeeming quality was that it strictly required Harris County to use toll diversions for road improvements and imposed an audit to verify compliance. There was minimal restriction on use of the funds by CoH.
Labels: governance, government transparency, toll roads, transit








