A better alternative to channelizing Buffalo Bayou, VC leaving CA for TX, top life science and entrepreneurship rankings, big solar, and more
My lead item this week is my proposed alternative to channelizing Buffalo Bayou or an expensive tunnel to better drain the westside reservoirs and avoid a future Harvey flooding tragedy: a 27-mile drainage trench or pipeline(s) using power-line right-of-way, satellite mapped here. I got inspired after reading Jim Blackburn's Chronicle interview about how bad the Army Corps of Engineers study was. And if a trench is problematic for some reason, maybe giant pipelines like these could work for a small fraction of the cost of a bored tunnel? Or the trench could be covered? Would genuinely love to hear feedback in the comments on the feasibility of this from people more knowledgeable than I...
On to this week's smaller items:
"Houston is on track to be a top market for life sciences. The report factored in size and growth of life-sciences employment, venture capital and National Institutes of Health funding, and more."
"California’s restrictive zoning laws make it nearly impossible for many essential low- and middle-income workers to live anywhere near major cities. In Texas, permissive zoning allows every member of our staff to live close to work and spend time with friends and family instead of enduring grueling commutes."
Labels: economic strategy, energy, entrepreneurship, home affordability, infrastructure, land-use regulation, rankings, resilience, TMC, tunneling
A simple reasonable home elevation standard, Houston's coolest map, amazing Harvey graphics, DFW+CA rail fails, algorithmic zoning insanity, and more
Before getting to this week's smaller items, two more important items:
First, a random idea on the city's proposed and controversial 500yr + 2ft housing elevation standard, which may raise housing costs substantially in those areas while also devaluing existing housing stock and make neighborhoods look like Galveston beach houses on stilts, even if they've never flooded: why not just make Harvey the standard, since it is a multi-thousand year storm? Don't build anything that would have flooded during Harvey, or any of our other major flood events. Show that your development wouldn't have flooded, and you're good to go. Keeps elevations reasonable, especially in areas that didn't flood. Simple standard, simply enforced.
Second, a bit of a yellow flag from a recent High Capacity Transit task force meeting. Check out
the 17:30 point in the Service concepts video where they aim for an 8-fold increase (from 87 million to 758 million) in transit usage by 2045, with a transit market share increase from 2 to 20% (!). Pretty darn ambitious. I have to wonder where that's realistically coming from, since Dallas, LA and others are
losing overall ridership, and that decline may accelerate with coming autonomous ride share technology. I'm skeptical (especially if the assumption is rail), but looking forward to learning more over time and understanding the model. Maybe this is the potential of MaX Lanes?! If it's based on solid assumptions, it would certainly be amazing, and something no other American city is doing. Hat tip to Oscar.
Moving on to this week's items:
"That means that the loss in bus ridership was nearly nine times greater than the gain in rail ridership."
Finally, ending with a fun item. I recently purchased
this totally awesome 3D laser-etched multi-layer wood chart of the Houston-Galveston area at an art shop in the New Orleans' French Quarter. Super-cool and a steal at only $298 (
order it online here). And I don't get a commission - I just think it's cool.
Labels: affordability, census, demographics, development, growth, home affordability, land-use regulation, MaX Lanes, mobility strategies, planning, port, rail, resilience, transit, tunneling, zoning
Exciting improvements to the new I45 plan plus the future of managed lanes
First, a quick event announcement: Please join me at Zillow’s housing forum on Wednesday, September 16th, 8:30-11:00am, at the Hilton Americas-Houston downtown (1600 Lamar St). I (along with other local experts) will discuss how Houston - one of America’s fastest growing cities - is planning for its future growth while keeping Houston’s housing market affordable.
See the full agenda and register for the event here. First time I've ever had to share the stage with another Tory, which is definitely going to be confusing!
Moving on to the subject of this week's post, Oscar Slotboom of
Houston Freeways fame and myself were able to meet with TXDoT representatives Sept 4th to discuss the new I45 plan (sincere thanks to Commissioner Jeff Moseley for making the meeting arrangements). I was really impressed with how seriously they've taken our input and feedback (as well as others') and excited about some new directions. Oscar's details of the new developments are included farther below (including the Pierce Elevated Park), but first here are some big takeaways I came away with:
- They fixed a lot of the problems I previously described here and here.
- The net average speed increase is predicted to be +24mph, which is a really big improvement! Also, it may make substantial progress at helping Houston reach clean air attainment goals, which is nothing to sneeze at (pun intended ;-).
- I pitched them on a new vision for TXDoT in an era of declining resources and limited ability to widen freeways: a comprehensive network of managed lanes in urban areas always providing a high-speed option, primarily for express buses but also HOVs and dynamic toll-payers. These lane networks are critical to keeping commutes tolerable, employers from fleeing to the suburbs, and maintaining the vitality and tax base of our core cities.
- They realize they have a bit of a branding problem with managed lanes, and seemed genuinely excited about my own proposal from way back: MaX Lanes (Managed eXpress Lanes) moving the maximum number of people at maximum speed. They may use different strategies that change over time to reach that goal, such as dynamic tolling, high-occupancy requirements, or eventually even driverless vehicle restrictions, but the overall goal of these lanes never changes: move as many people as possible at high speed.
- Discussion ensued about how these managed lane networks might be connected without creating a completely unmanageable tangle of ramps, like, for example, if managed lanes on 45N needed to connect to (hypothetical) ones on 610N to connect people over to Uptown. My own suggestion came from watching True Detective season 1, which includes this image from the opening credits showing a traffic circle connecting two freeways in Metairie, LA (see Google satellite map here). It's called a three-level stacked roundabout. Evidently these were used long ago when freeways were much smaller, but they bog down once they are wider and carry more traffic. But they're perfect for easily connecting a small set of 1/2/4 managed lanes to another small set of 1/2/4 managed lanes. I really hope TXDoT takes a serious look at this option for connecting up our managed lane network.
- And the really big news: They're actually considering my old idea of connecting the 59/527 spur to I45 through Midtown with cut-and-cover tunnels under Bagby and Brazos! In fact, it might even be something they consider before construction, so they can act as a reliever during the massive I45 rebuild! Totally speculative right now, but they seemed genuinely interested in exploring it, especially after starting to think of it as a much cheaper/easier cut-and-cover trench project rather than boring deep, expensive tunnels.
Overall, I'd say my feelings on the project have evolved from
mild supporter to
mildly opposed and now back to
strong support as TXDoT continues to make improvements to the plan.
Kuff has three additional updates to the plan here.
Details from Oscar Slotboom at HAIF below:
---------------
I attended a meeting at TxDOT on September 4 where TxDOT provided an update on the status of the plan. Overall the news is good. The items which are my most serious concerns are being fixed. Numerous other issues are still under review, and some items won't be changed to the extent I would like to see. But overall, I'm pleased.
The plan analysis has been updated at
http://houstonfreeways.com/analysis
Highlights
Good news on expected modifications
1. Interstate 45 will have at least three continuous lanes through downtown. This fixes my most serious design concern of the entire project, although details on the merging and transition zones need to be verified to be sufficient in the next official release.
2. Interstate 45 will have five regular lanes in each direction under North Main, and five regular lanes in each direction between Loop 610 and downtown. A long northbound collector lane from downtown functioning like a long on-ramp will help minimize the risk of a bottleneck in this area. There will also be numerous other improvements in the area addressing neighborhood concerns. No additional right-of-way is needed except for maybe a minor impact to the fuel station on the northwest corner at North Main. This design looks like it will be the best is can be given the constraints, and fixes my second most serious design concern.
3. A ramp from westbound I-10 to the southbound downtown spur is expected to be added, solving the problem of downtown access from westbound I-10.
Promising modifications under study
In order to maintain a staging area for the GRB center, they are looking at placing the staging area on a deck over the freeway trench and then swerving Hamilton toward the east, away from the GRB, so that the staging area is immediately adjacent to the GRB. Hamilton would be above the freeway trench in this area, rather than on the ground on the west side of the trench as shown in the original plan.
Observation on the Pierce Elevated
HNTB mentioned that the price of downtown land around the Pierce Elevated is around $100 per square foot, with a net to TxDOT after legal and professional fees around $65. Since the Pierce Elevated uses around 14 half blocks, with each half block around 250x125 feet (31,250 square feet), that translates to $3.1 million per half block or $43 million overall, with a net around $28 million. Of course, those numbers are rough ballpark numbers and real estate prices fluctuate.
It seems feasible and reasonable that the City of Houston could afford $28 million for Pierce Skypark land. In comparison, the proposed park on a deck over the freeway near the GRB will be far more expensive, at least $100 million just for the deck and a total cost between $150 and $300 million, depending on the size and amount of features.
Items still under review
For eastbound Allen Parkway into downtown, it originally appeared that a loop on-ramp would be added (similar to the existing loop ramp), but now more options are being considered, including adding a northbound on-ramp at West Dallas which Allen Parkway traffic would also use.
For the downtown spur section south of Allen Parkway, the configuration with Heiner Street (currently side-by-side) is under review and could be changed to a configuration with frontage roads.
Previously reported
Access to the I-45 managed lanes in the downtown area will be improved, and some access points are still being studied.
Better connections between the I-45 managed lanes and Loop 610, although details were not available.
No connections between Memorial and the downtown spur.
Items of Concern which TxDOT says do not need changes, or cannot be changed
No additional regular lane capacity on I-45 is expected between Loop 610 and Beltway 8. As of July this was under consideration, but appears to be rejected. I'm still hoping for a longer section of five regular lanes each way north of Loop 610.
Changes to the access between downtown and SH 288 will be minimal, with only a potential minor improvement to the southbound ramp at downtown entrance.
In the south Midtown area, changes to the on/off ramps to/from US 59 are also expected to be minor, but this area is still under review with a meeting planned in Midtown later this month.
Labels: autonomous vehicles, congestion pricing, mobility strategies, toll roads, transportation plan, tunneling
Home affordability in real-life context, top rankings, tunnel costs, a Portlander disagrees, renewable energy in Houston
The small items are piling up faster than ever this year:
"A household moving from San Jose to Austin would save more than $1,000,000 in purchase and mortgage costs for the median priced house. This is the equivalent of 17 years median household income in San Jose or 26 years in Austin. Moving to Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston or Indianapolis from San Jose would save more than $1,500,000, which is the equivalent of from 25 to 30 years of median household income in the less costly markets."
Wow. I don't know about you, but saving 25-30 years of income has an absolutely amazing impact on my quality of life... ;-)
In the footnotes, I also discovered that we're the second-fastest growing metro market over 5 million people in the high-income world, ahead of Atlanta and just behind DFW.
- Speaking of rankings, came across some new ones:
Houston ranks # 1, Job Growth, by: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Houston ranks # 1, Lowest Cost of Living and Least-Expensive Housing Among 24 Metropolitan Areas with Populations of More Than 2 Million, by: ACCRA Cost of Living Index
Houston ranks # 2, Texas -- Best Business Climate in the Nation, by: Site Selection
Not bad. Not bad at all.
"Houston's exports jumped 28 percent to $53.3 billion in 2006, according to a new analysis of exporting data the U.S. Department of Commerce released Thursday.
The Bayou City maintained its ranking as the nation's second-biggest exporter, trailing the New York City region, which exported $66.2 billion in merchandise. Houston beat out Los Angeles, which exported $48.7 billion in 2006. ...
Free trade agreements with Mexico, Canada and Central America helped the city boost its exports, experts said."
This Portlander disagrees
I was astonished to see a letter in Wednesday's Chronicle from an Oregonian who says he likes what has been done to Portland. (Please see "Concept of city planning / Portlander's opinion.") As a recovering Portlander who worked for the city in the early days of its "transformation," I watched heavy-handed zoning tactics and the urban growth boundary make that beautiful town unaffordable to all but the affluent and childless. Traffic congestion rivals New Delhi or Rome.
While living there, I watched "new urban" planners change Portland from a rock-solid blue- and white-collar city with strong family neighborhoods to a kind of urban Disneyworld for aging boomers who want a place to play while they sip their lattes. No cars in the city center, no industry along the river and lots of expensive condos.
My husband, a native Portlander descended from settlers who traveled the Oregon Trail and put down deep roots, sadly watches our Oregon grandchildren grow up outside his hometown. High housing prices and mediocre schools have driven families out of the city. Unemployment is always higher than the national average, and Portland taxes are astronomical. The money goes to light rail and the creation of neighborhoods with a "sense of place" where nobody wants to live. (nice quip!)
Except for the world-class roses, Portland, Ore., has little that Houston should want to replicate.
SHERRY SYLVESTER
Garden Ridge
- Finally want to end on this random email I received. Good to see renewable energy initiatives congregating in Houston to diversify our energy base. More on extremely promising algae as renewable energy in this Chronicle article from late last year.
National Algae Association
4747 Research Forest Dr., Suite 180
The Woodlands, Texas 77381
inquiries(at)nationalalgaeassociation.com (I converted to no-spam format to avoid the spam spiders)
National Algae Association, The Woodlands, Texas
(February 1, 2008)
Announces the opening of its new headquarters serving all areas of the Algae industry.
Algae researchers and producers can come together to exchange ideas concerning the latest developments in Algae production and the products made from Algae. The Association provides an open exchange forum for the publishing of technical papers and the announcement of the results of research into the latest Algae related technologies. The Association also supports discussion and development of new markets that take advantage of the tremendous potential of Algae, not only as a source of renewable energy, but also in the exploration and development of other markets for algae products, such as cosmetics, pharmaceuticals and fertilizers.
For more information contact: inquiries(at)nationalalgaeassociation.com or 936.321.1125
That's it for this week. Have a great Super Bowl weekend.
Labels: economy, energy, growth, home affordability, land-use regulation, perspectives, quality of place, rankings, tunneling
The brilliance of freeway tunnels (part 2 of 2)
Part 1 here. Reading the
paper sparked a couple of my own variant ideas. All of the conceptual cross-sections show two tunnels, but some tunnel concepts contain as many as 8-9 lanes in each one (stacked 2-3 levels high inside the tunnel cross-section). Might we get away with a single tunnel instead of two, since we're keeping I-45 on the surface? Would that roughly halve the cost?
Another variant: a tunnel allows us to think outside of the 45 corridor itself. Is that really the best place to put the new capacity? If you look at
a map of Houston, you can see that big driver of the congestion on 45 is that a large swath of NW Harris County drains into it on local streets. For whatever reason, 249 inside the Beltway never became the spoke freeway it should have been. A tunnel under the 249 corridor may make more sense, connecting to the 249 freeway outside the Beltway and relieving both 290 and 45. 290 could definitely use the relief, and it would provide a more direct trip into town for the people of that heavily populated area around Willowbrook.
Combining the two ideas, it may even make sense to run a single tunnel under 45, and another single tunnel under 249, coming together at some point near 610.
I am really inspired by the potential of tunneling in Houston. If they're successful in this corridor, there are all sorts of other places around town that could certainly use the same solution: (here's a
map to help you visualize)
- How about adding capacity to the always-congested West Loop?
- Bring the 225 Pasadena Freeway into the center of town as originally planned? (taking the load off of 45S inside the loop)
- Connect the Ft. Bend Parkway to the southwest corner of the 610 loop?
- Create a missing spoke freeway between 290 and I-10 outside the Beltway?
It solves so many problems, like limited rights-of-way, community and environmental impacts, and construction congestion - while providing the new capacity we need to grow, as well as the congestion-priced
express lane network we need to solve our congestion and commuter transit problems.
For a long time I've wondered how we'll connect center-median express lanes (like on the new I-10) with crossing freeways without creating an insane tangle of ramps (or forcing express traffic into the congested general lanes for the exits, defeating their purpose). But if the express lanes are
underground - including the connecting exit ramps - then the problem is solved!
TXDoT and HCTRA need to see this as
not a one-off project, but building an expertise and capability that can be applied over decades of growth. The cost of that learning curve and that equipment has the potential to be amortized over many projects, not just 45, making the economics even more compelling than it already is.
Labels: infrastructure, mobility strategies, toll roads, tunneling
The brilliance of freeway tunnels (part 1 of 2)
A few weeks back, Gonzalo Camacho sent me an intimidating 30-page
white paper on the tunnel option for expanding the I-45N corridor using some of the newest tunnel-boring technologies from Europe and elsewhere. It took me a while to get around to reading it, but in one fell swoop it converted me from skeptic to a true believer.
The essence of what makes it so compelling is that
all of the money spent is for completely new capacity, since the existing surface 45 stays right where it is. Compare that to the current alternative being proposed, which, at the end of the day after $2+ billion is spent, only adds a net of 3 new lanes of capacity between downtown and Beltway 8 (from 8 + HOV to 8 + 4 managed lanes) - and that's after 5+ years of nightmare construction (vs. disruption-free underground tunneling).
On top of that, the tunnel can also solve several problems not addressed in the current plans, by continuing through downtown to 45S, 288, and 59 - bypassing the downtown bottlenecks at the Pierce Elevated and the 59-288 junction. Talk about killing several birds with one stone.
What we're talking about here is a congestion-priced, tolled set of express through-lanes that only have a few exits at major junctions. Local traffic stays on the surface freeway, which may evolve into a more sedate parkway over time, like Memorial or Allen Parkway (although I'm more skeptical of that ever happening - given the high demand and powerful commercial interests along that freeway).
The paper details how safety and flooding are handled, as well as a myriad of additional benefits: far faster construction, a substantially longer roadway life expectancy, and air, noise, and visual pollution reduction.
Raw cost is 50% more - about $3 billion instead of $2B - but when complete lifecycle costs are considered, it only works out to about 10% more per mile. And I don't think that considers any of the value in terms of time saved by drivers in both the construction and finished stages (the surface option is expected to get re-congested relatively sooner). The financials are well detailed, and summed up in a
great table on p.26.
Tip to Gonzalo: re-calculate your costs in terms of $ per
lane-mile of capacity - rather than per mile. Since your option adds so much additional capacity, it has to look much better that way (and be sure to include both the surface 45 and the new tunnels in the total lane-miles capacity denominator).
Gonzalo should be commended for his passion and dedication for a cause too many - myself included - have been too quick to dismiss. You can
read the paper yourself here, or browse his
web site here. And if you know any of the decision-makers involved, please voice your support or pass this along. It's just too good an opportunity for Houston to ignore.
In my next post,
part 2, I'll discuss my own tunnel variant ideas and the long-term potential for tunneling in Houston.
Labels: infrastructure, mobility strategies, toll roads, tunneling
